Week 7 College Football Recap and Final Week 8 AP Poll Predictions

An AMAZING slate of games for Week 7. A ton of games ending in OT. What does the machine learning algorithm think will be the next AP Top 25?

Oct 13, 2024

There isn’t much more you could have asked for on Saturday. All of the supposed to be good games lived up to the hype, there were was a few scares of top teams, and some teams just outside the #25 ranking kept making a case to let them in.

Let’s dive into everything that happened, and the major ranking changes we can expect from it.

Go To Rankings Right Now

Rankings Right Now Week 8 Prediction

Here is the final Week 8 predicted rankings for the AP Top 25 from the Rankings Right Now machine learning model. As a reminder, this model has been trained on historical AP poll voting data. It’s sole purpose is to try and predict how the poll will vote as close as possible.

Top Rankings Headlines

A Little Bit Louder Now

The Ducks were able to win the heavyweight matchup against Ohio State. Oregon is predicted to move up one spot from #3 to #2, while the Buckeyes are predicted to drop to #5 in the rankings. Using the What If simulation tool, we can predict what would have happened had OSU nailed a nearly impossible field goal had they called a timeout with one second left in the game.

Oregon dropping down to #7 might be a little much given how equal both teams appeared. Either way, you’ll notice that #1 did not change.

Bigger In Texas

The Red River Rivalry had its normal wackiness in the first few minutes of the game, but Texas showed off their big belt buckles against the Sooners. Texas smacked around Oklahoma 34-3, keeping them in the #1 AP poll position with their convincing win. Oklahoma is predicted to drop out of the top 25. A very tough scenario for having to face two top ten teams in the last three weeks, but they seem to have some QB questions they need to figure out.

NL in LA

The Nittany Lions were able to pull off a huge comeback in Los Angeles against USC. This was another fun one to watch play out to see where the rankings would land. Using the What If simulation tool again, if you flip the outcome of the game (that finished in OT by the way), Penn State drops down to #8. Makes sense.

HOWEVER. Look at where the algorithm has USC. #11! It is really easy to argue that, sure. I get it. But, USC was #11 two weeks ago before their loss to Minnesota, so it would have been so interesting to see what would have happened to a team going from #11 → Not Ranked → ? in a matter of three weeks, especially with such a big win against a top five team.

Nine Lives In Death Valley

ANOTHER game ending in OT. It looked like #9 Ole Miss might have survived with a huge 55+ yard field goal in OT, but was immediately squandered by LSU on the first pass of their OT possession to end the game on a walk off touchdown. Ole Miss is dropping, and dropping fast. Their solid win against South Carolina last week was enough to keep voters confident in them. The algorithm having them drop all the way down to #25, to me, is too aggressive of a prediction. We’ll see how close of a prediction it will be with the new release.

As for what things looked like if LSU would have been picked off on the TD, which would have resulted in Ole Miss winning 26-23, they would have kept their ranking at #9, but LSU would have dropped just outside the top 25. Once again, maybe a little too aggressive of a drop.

Almost Just As Predicted

In last Friday’s newsletter, we mentioned “Well what if Tennessee and Alabama come out flat after a shocking upset, and lose their games at home to unranked teams?” Well, the first half of it came through, but both teams were able to find a way to win. This would have sent college football into a frenzy

One weakness we’ve seen with the AP poll predictive model is when team’s don’t play up to their expectation, they typically stay in their current ranking instead of moving down a little, which is not uncommon in the AP poll. This will be an area of focus in the offseason to improve upon.

Do Alabama and Tennessee drop even further in the rankings after unimpressive wins?

Here are what the predicted rankings would have looked like had both teams lost their games.

Personal Note - Why does this continue to happen where an undisputed underdog, on the road, kicks an extra point instead of going for two for a winner take all moment? Why? Does Florida really thing “Man, if we can just KEEP playing this game, maybe we’ll have a better shot at winning in OT rather than trying to get two yards for the W!”

Their season is already over. There will not be a playoff run for Florida. Everyone would have respect for the decision. They have nothing to lose.

Just go for two dude.

Other Top Headlines

Vanderbilt had another solid win against Kentucky, and according to the model, they’re predicted to move to the #22 spot
#18 Kansas State has to deal with all the tough night road games. After losing a late night game against BYU earlier in the year, they were able to score in the last few minutes to survive against a very hot and talented CU team
Army remains undefeated and keeps pounding teams. They have to be getting close to breaking through into an officially ranked team
BYU continues to look impressive, definitively defeating Arizona who took out BYU’s rival, Utah, a week ago
The model predicts Utah will be out of the top 25, and I believe it. Utah’s signature win this year was against Oklahoma State, which has now shown OSU doesn’t have the juice this year. Back to back losses against unranked opponents, a game time decision every week for their #1 QB, no impressive W to point to…they might be done

College Football Selection Committee Poll Check In

“These rankings don’t mean anything”

- College football fans on social media, who somehow say they don’t care about the AP poll, but still feel the need to post and comment their frustrations all the time about the AP poll

We’re getting closer and closer to the poll determining the college football playoff and it’s time to start paying attention to the Rankings Right Now Playoff Committee machine learning model.

Few things to note

I can already hear the screaming. #3 OSU, #4 Oregon. Yes, I saw the game last night too. In reality, this would be flipped. But more surprising to me, the algorithm wants Penn State above both of them
Iowa State is ahead of BYU and Notre Dame in this one vs in the AP poll
The top 10 in both models aren’t in the same order, but have the same teams
Ole Miss drops to #18 in this model, unlike the AP model where they’re fully kicked out
All models love Army
Two teams lurking in the background that might be off people’s radar: Syracuse and Arizona State

This model doesn’t have nearly the same large swings as the AP poll model, which makes sense. From what I can remember, there aren’t as many “shocking” reveals from the selection committee than what we see in the AP poll (please stop with the death glare FSU fans).

What’s Next?

Newsletter Monday morning evaluating the Rankings Right Now final predictions with the true Week 8 AP poll rankings
New predictions and simulation results for Week 8, predicting Week 9, will start to roll out on the website and social media late Monday night

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