Week 9 College Football Recap and Final Week 10 AP Poll Predictions

Changes in the predicted top 10 in the AP poll, dominant wins that will lead to major discussions, and an update on the selection committee algorithm

Oct 27, 2024

Throughout this season we saw a lot of weekends where top matchups led to some surprising outcomes. Week 9 had some really good games, but nothing to where you’re texting your friends “NO WAY!!”. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t some potential surprises that could come out in today’s Week 10 AP poll.

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Final Week 10 AP Poll Predictions

Here are the final predictions from the Rankings Right Now AP poll algorithm. As a reminder, the goal of these predictions is not to come up with the “best” rankings, but come as close as possible to the actual results as the AP poll.

Main Headlines

Aggies Into The Top Ten

They might have dropped out of the conversation for the first third of the season, but you can’t ignore them anymore. Texas A&M’s defense was stellar against LSU, and their offense had nonstop momentum in the second half. They slingshot into the top ten, with LSU taking a hard fall to #20 according to the algorithm. We’ve had these types of predictions throughout the year where teams leap down in the rankings after a loss, but I think it’s too aggressive. I would expect somewhere in the #14-#18 range.

Shutout

Just like the annoying classmate you couldn’t stand in high school, Alabama re-inserted themselves into the conversation. Against a ranked Mizzou opponent, who will most definitely not be ranked this upcoming rankings release, they allowed 0 points. Absolute domination. According to the model, this puts them ahead of

BYU, who won their game even though they were considered an underdog (???) to UCF
Notre Dame, who dominated a ranked Navy team
Indiana, who rolled through unranked Washington

I can see the eye rolls from the non-SEC fanbase about seeing Bama make that jump, but on paper, a 34-0 win against a team that was ranked higher than UCF, Navy, and Washington makes the algorithm believe the AP poll will reward them. However, we humans know Mizzou wasn’t set up for success today with a backup QB. It will be interesting to see how the AP views this win.

Battle With the King Slayer

As the saying goes, “If you go for the king, you best not miss”. Vanderbilt missed their shot, but they might have wounded Texas with the attempt.

Based on the Week 10 predictions, Texas lost ground today to Miami. Miami, who could have beaten FSU blindfolded, has been cruising lately. With another convincing win, they impressed the algorithm more than Texas winning by three in Nashville. People are giving Vandy a lot more respect than when Mizzou beat them and dropped four slots in the rankings earlier in the season. According to the model:

“If you’re a top five team in the country, you shouldn’t be playing it close to the #25 team”
- Rankings Right Now AP Model

Things would have been REALLY interesting if Vandy could have finished the job. Using the What If simulation tool, if Texas would have lost 30-27 it would have caused some big movements. The Longhorns would have nearly dropped out of the top 10, and Vanderbilt would have moved all the way up to 15 and in perfect striking distance for the home stretch for the college football playoff.

Gophers

Guess who the algorithm believes will be ranked in the top 25 this week?

Do I actually think they’ll be in? No. Even looking at the College Football Selection Committee algorithm, which we’ll dive into more in a minute, they’re #56. They gained a lot of steam with their win against USC at the time, and they’re on a nice winning streak so maybe they get a few votes, but tough call to put them in with three losses.

But you better believe I will use that Minnesota meme every single chance I get.

College Football Selection Committee Check In

The common phrase at the beginning of the year “Rankings don’t matter” has become less common now, and finally, we’re inching closer to where they REALLY begin to matter. The AP algorithm has some flaws that absolutely need to be addressed in the offseason, but reviewing the Playoff Committee’s algorithm each week (which hasn’t had a single reset based on true rankings the entire season) gives us a new, fun, unbiased look into where the current top 12 are sitting.

Some main points I found interesting between the two models

Texas is ahead of Penn State and Ohio State in the latest predictions, which will be for a very interesting discussion if that ends up being true
The algorithm seems to have a lot more love for Notre Dame compared to the AP poll
Similar to the AP poll predictions, Texas A&M is also in the top 10
Unlike the AP poll predictions, BYU is ahead of teams like Clemson, Iowa State, and Indiana
Colorado is right on the edge of breaking into the top 25, along with Memphis, Wazzu, and Michigan

We’re far enough into the season where the frauds have left the building and whoever is remaining within the top 40-ish rankings are solid teams. Team to team comparison between the top 25 in both models is very similar, but definitely has some shake ups on how the teams are ordered.

What’s Next?

Newsletter Monday morning evaluating the Rankings Right Now final predictions with the true Week 10 AP poll rankings
New predictions and simulation results for Week 10, predicting Week 11, will start to roll out on the website and social media late Monday night

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