There were losses all across the board this weekend. The video recap goes into great detail of how things moved around so much, but today’s newsletter is going to focus on evaluating the model’s interpretation of the games. At first glance, things look a little strange. But the more you understand the entirety of what happened Saturday, the more understandable things become.
Predicted Rankings
Here are the Playoff Committee’s rankings forecast for Tuesday’s release using the Rankings Right Now machine learning model, trained on historical voting data.
Main Headlines
Alabama and Ole Miss Set The Foundation
When you look at a lot of these rankings, especially within the top 11, things look a little counterintuitive.
How is it possible Georgia and Tennessee don’t move up with three teams ahead of them losing? Indiana only moving down two spots?
It all has to do with Alabama and Ole Miss losing. Using the What If simulation tool If they had won their games, this is what the predicted rankings would look like:
Indiana drops four spots to #9
Alabama and Ole Miss stay within the top 10
Georgia and Tennessee both drop two
SMU and Boise move up a few spots
Because of the Rebels and Crimson Tide creating space up top in the rankings, Indiana gets to have a much less severe drop than people would have believed. They would be right on the border of being in the top ten, but now it’s almost a certainty they will stay in.
Speaking of Georgia and Tennessee
Why did it have them dropping two spots in the rankings if Alabama and Ole Miss would have won? It’s because the algorithm, which is supposed to be a reflection of the committee, learned nothing from their wins.
Georgia beats UMASS, who was ranked #101 by the algorithm going into this weekend, by almost 40; however, they gave up three touchdowns in the process.
Tennessee beats UTEP, who was ranked #130 by the algorithm going into this weekend, 56-0; however, they did the exact same thing to these kind of teams earlier in the season.
Even both teams almost putting up 60 point wins against some of the weakest teams in the country isn’t enough to make a point of why they earned to move up in the rankings.
Broncos and Ponies
In place of Georgia and Tennessee moving up in the rankings, SMU and Boise State were the lucky winners (according to the algorithm). Why? Road wins mean more.
The algorithm, which is trained on historical voting patterns from the Playoff Committee, has shown to favor teams who have a road win vs a team with a home win (with all other variables remaining the same). Wyoming was ranked #124 going into their matchup with Boise State, but there is an additional element of difficulty to win on the road. Boise wins an ugly one in Cheyanne, 17-13, giving them another W under their belt and keeping the train moving.
SMU had a much tougher opponent on the road, Virginia. Virginia was ranked #60 according to the algorithm. SMU finished with a complete win by beating a middle of the pack team on the road, winning by a strong margin (26), and only giving up one touchdown.
This is why SMU has one of the more significant jumps in the rankings ahead of Georgia and Tennessee. Don’t let people fool you into believing TENN and UGA will be ranked higher just because of the conference sticker on their helmet. Whether you like it or not, the committee’s historical responses show road wins against weaker opponents are better than home wins against the WORST opponents.
Quadruple Overtime
Included in the madness was Texas A&M losing at Auburn in quadruple OT. This essentially seals the deal the Aggies will not be in the college football playoff. What would have happened if they would have won instead? They would have moved up two spots AND ahead of their SEC roommate Ole Miss. Ole Miss should be elated Texas A&M won that game and removed one more barrier from sneaking in the back door and keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Big 12 Blunder
What makes the Big 12 so much fun this year? There is no team that is safe.
What is the repercussion of the conference being so evenly talented? It could cause the entire conference from missing out of the playoff.
BYU loses in back to back weeks, falling to Arizona State. However, with ASU now being ranked so high in the rankings, it doesn’t turn into that bad of a loss. The Sun Devils are ahead of BYU, and those are the only two teams that should be ranked in the top 20 in Tuesday’s rankings.
Colorado was in the top 20, but with a blowout loss to Kansas in Lawrence, KS, The Jayhawks are just playing spoiler to seasons. CU had everything in front of them but couldn’t get the job done. They are almost certain to be out of the Big 12 championship game, and therefore, won’t have one more signature win to get them into the playoff.
Watch out for Iowa State. There are some situations where they make the Big 12 championship game, and having that additional game to win could put them from being unranked two weeks ago to being in the playoff. That would be a crazy situation for both ASU and ISU.
Other Things To Note
Penn State with a one point road win is projected to move ahead of Texas
Notre Dame finished off Army’s hopes and dreams of being the main contender for the G5 selection. Surprisingly, they don’t move ahead of Texas or Penn State in the rankings according to the model
An ENORMOUS game for Clemson and South Carolina next weekend for rivalry week. That game should have the biggest ranking implications in the entire country
What’s Next?
Newsletter Friday morning evaluating the Rankings Right Now Week 14 predictions with the true Week 14 Playoff Committee rankings, as well as the next important matchups to look out for
New predictions and simulation results for Week 13, predicting Week 14, will start to roll out on the website and social media after the rankings release on Tuesday night after the rankings release
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