Rivalry Weekend gave us everything we could have asked for. Upsets happened, close games across the board, and once again, major questions for the Playoff Committee to address on Tuesday.
Let’s go through the top storylines in college football and see how the model is forecasting the next rankings release to look.
Check out the video, or read the top headlines from Saturday’s results.
Forecasted Week 15 Rankings
Here are the predicted Week 15 Playoff Committee rankings from the Rankings Right Now machine learning model.
Catastrophe In Columbus
The game everyone didn’t talk about all week became the game everyone can’t stop talking about. #2 Ohio State couldn’t handle unranked Michigan in Columbus, and even worse, Michigan didn’t even have 50 yards of passing.
Now, enough beating around the bush. The Rankings Right Now model has them ONLY dropping one spot…hell no. I don’t believe that one bit.
So why would the model make such a weak prediction? The algorithm might show #1, #2, #3…, but really behind the scenes, there are gaps between each ranking. Some are small, some are large.
According to how the algorithm was viewing OSU, there was a very large gap between teams like OSU and #4 Penn State. I think everyone could agree with that logic going into this weekend. Instead of the typical “Oh well after a loss, they should drop down five to six spots”, it will be interesting how far down the Playoff Committee will send the Buckeyes.
What is that point difference between OSU and Penn State according to the model? According to the algorithm, even if you changed the outcome to 35-0, Notre Dame would bump ahead of Ohio State, but it still wouldn’t drop below Penn State.
Maybe the algorithm is smarter than the rest of us? Maybe it is completely delusional? Taking a quick look at the AP predictive algorithm, OSU is expected to drop down to #6 in the rankings.
Miami Migraine
Unlike the bizarre one drop in the rankings from Ohio State, #6 Miami had a worse case scenario happen against unranked Syracuse Saturday. This might be the biggest question mark for the committee on ranking placement of any team.
The real issue for Miami isn’t losing the game because of what it might do to their rankings, but now they won’t be participating in the ACC championship game. Clemson, who lost to South Carolina today, is now going to be in the ACC championship game against SMU. If they were to win that championship game against SMU, I would assume that would be enough just to squeak into the playoffs. They wouldn’t get an automatic bid, but that would mean SMU would probably fall out, Clemson would jump in. Even writing that seems strange.
Regardless, Miami will not have that extra game to get the bad taste out of the committee’s mouth. Their best hope is for chaos of championship games for those teams who are in the #8-#12 area to try and force their way into the conversation.
Where Does South Carolina Go?
Mixed up in the Miami Migraine are the Gamecocks. Out of all the three loss teams on the outside looking in, and based on recent gameplay performance, South Carolina by far has the best argument for why they should be included in the playoff. They have won their last six games, three of them were against ranked teams at the time. Their last loss was against Alabama by only two points.
Can you put a three loss South Carolina ahead of two loss Miami? A three loss Alabama team they lost to earlier in the year? South Carolina NEEDS this jump in the rankings to be relevant since they are not in the SEC championship game.
What about Clemson? Would a Clemson win have changed anything of significance? Not really. Outside of the obvious South Carolina drop in the rankings, Clemson would have moved up into the top 10 (arguably, especially with Indiana winning 66-0). Alabama still sits at #13, Miami still predicted to move to #12.
What’s Next?
Newsletter Friday morning evaluating the Rankings Right Now Week 15 predictions with the true Week 15 Playoff Committee rankings, as well as the next important matchups to look out for
New predictions and simulation results for Week 15, predicting Week 16, will start to roll out on the website and social media after the rankings release on Tuesday night after the rankings release
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